Pope’s visit should raise Mexico’s spirits
Visiting Guanajuato from March 23 to 26, the Pope is expected to deliver a message of peace and unity, offering hope and a sense of release to a nation beset by well documented security problems.
Under the name “Voices of Mexico,” a group of young people released a video this week welcoming the Catholic leader to Mexico. The film features messages from athletes, politicians, television stars and businessmen stressing the importance of the papal visit.
Among those interviewed are gymnast Cynthia Valdez, golfer Lorena Ochoa, Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez’s grandfather Tomas Balcazar and Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez, along with his counterparts from Durango and Morelos.
“This is for Catholics and non Catholics. We wanted to welcome the Pope because he always brings a message of peace, friendship, tolerance and unity and that fits well with Mexico,” said group founder Rodrigo Sola, before dismissing any opposition to the papal visit: “those who question the Pope’s visit are a minority, we love that he is coming.”
Mexico’s presidential candidates will be invited to the Pope’s celebration of Mass, but will not speak with him in any private meeting, the Vatican announced this week.
Benedict will meet only with President Felipe Calderon, Foreign Secretary Patricia Espinoza and Secretary of the Interior Alejandro Poire for a brief, 20-minute chat in Guanajuato’s Casa del Conde Rul on March 24.
“We are in an election period, so he has to respect the laws of the country. Candidates may not be invited to such events. They will receive an invitation to participate in the Mass, but there is no meeting with the Holy Father, that’s obvious,” said the Papal Nuncio in Mexico, Christophe Pierre.
POPE BENEDICT XVI’s FULL SCHEDULE
Friday, March 23
4:30 p.m. Welcoming ceremony at the Guanajuato Airport.
Saturday, March 24
8 a.m. Private Holy Mass in the Chapel of Colegio Miraflores.
6 p.m. Courtesy visit to the Mexican president in the House of Conde Rul in Guanajuato.
6:45 p.m. Greeting with children gathered at Plaza de la Paz in Guanajuato.
Sunday, March 25
10 a.m. Holy Mass at Parque del Bicentenario. Recitation of the Angelus Domini.
6 p.m. Celebration of Vespers with the Bishops of Mexico and Latin America in the Cathedral Madre Santisima de la Luz de Leon.
Monday, March 26
9 a.m. Farewell Ceremony at the Guanajuato Airport.
Could, should and would the government capture El Chapo?
Last Friday’s disturbances in Guadalajara fueled rumors that Mexico’s most powerful drug lord, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, had finally been caught. While such speculation proved unfounded, authorities did come within a whisker of capturing the billionaire fugitive in Los Cabos recently.
Guzman is the most wanted criminal in both Mexico and the United States, but how important would his arrest be? And would it have positive or negative consequences in Mexico?
Even U.S. officials are in disagreement over the matter. During a recent visit to Mexico, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said the United States must pursue Guzman as long as necessary, likening him to that other fugitive finally caught last year: Osama Bin Laden.
But this week General Charles Jacoby, head of the U.S. Northern Command, said the capture of 22 of the 37 most wanted drug lords in Mexico “has not had any positive effects,” as “violence continues to increase.” This is because drug cartels have a Hydra-like quality, in that if you cut off one of their heads, several more grow back in its place.
Guadalajara and most of western Mexico is controlled by Guzman’s Sinaloa Cartel and in recent years the region has been relatively calm compared to other parts of Mexico. This is largely due to Guzman’s position of unrivaled power.
If he were to fall the region would become destabilized, with the more bloodthirsty Zetas seeking to taking hold. His capture would also ignite a bloody power struggle within the Sinaloa Cartel, with different factions vying for control of the enormous organization.
Guzman’s arrest would however provide political capital for President Felipe Calderon. Conspiracy theories have circulated in Mexico that the government will finally seize Guzman ahead of the July 1 election to provide the ruling National Action Party (PAN) with a much needed boost in the polls.
Capturing Guzman would transform Calderon’s legacy and put an end to persistent rumors that he has been protecting El Chapo while pursuing his rivals. Yet such a theory supposes that the Mexican authorities are capable of catching one of the most powerful men on earth at a whim. Recent history suggests this is unlikely.
Three weeks ago, Guzman was apparently hiding in a seaside mansion in Los Cabos, only to slip out the back door moments before federal police raided the property. Four of his alleged associates were arrested and are now in custody.
Mexican authorities have come close to capturing their elusive prey on several occasions, only for him to escape at the last minute. This has caused frustration among U.S. intelligence officials, who often provide their Mexican counterparts with precise information on Guzman’s whereabouts.
The United States tends to hold such information closely until Guzman’s exact address is known, before sharing it with a few key trusted members of the Mexican military or federal police. Yet with Guzman always able to give his chasers the slip, it seems clear that there are leaks in the chain who are tipping him off every time.
State’s leftist coalition in acrimonious split
Tlajomulco Mayor Enrique Alfaro Ramirez announced the split with the PRD last Friday, later confirming that he will still lead an alliance of the Labor Party (PT), Citizens Movement (formerly known as Convergencia) and the National Regeneration Movement (Morena).
Suddenly finding itself without a candidate, the PRD state committee convened with national party leader Jesus Zambrano in a Guadalajara hotel on Wednesday to decide who should run for governor under the party banner.
The outcome was somewhat surprising. By a landslide margin of 126 votes to three, the committee chose Fernando Garza Martinez, a former member of the National Action Party (PAN) who served as mayor of Guadalajara from 2001 to 2003.
Garza quit the PAN in March 2009, claiming the party in Jalisco was an undemocratic institution run by a small group of individuals. His political about-turn raised eyebrows as the conservative PAN and the leftist PRD are the most ideologically opposed of Mexico’s three major parties.
Garza had initially registered to run for governor with the PRD, only to pull out and begin a second bid to be mayor of Guadalajara. But once the coalition collapsed last week he found a shot at the governorship irresistible.
“We will fully support his candidacy to be the next governor of Jalisco,” said Juan Carlos Guerrero, state president of the PRD, on Wednesday. Local party members also had some choice words for Alfaro.
“He overestimates his political capital and thinks that without us he can become governor, but he is wrong,” said Enrique Velazquez, while Celia Fausto accused Alfaro of acting with “arrogance and authoritarianism.”
A popular and respected figure in Tlajomulco, Alfaro gained credibility by taking on the operators of the Guadalajara Airport over their refusal to pay municipal taxes, as well as starting programs to provide across-the-board financial assistance for local students.
But he has a fractious relationship with Raul Padilla, the former rector of the Universidad de Guadalajara (UdeG) who dominates the Jalisco PRD. As local kingmaker, Padilla normally decides who occupies senior party positions in Jalisco, but he was powerless to prevent the nomination of Alfaro, who came out on top in two public surveys to determine who should head the leftist coalition.
The alliance proved unworkable, fracturing barely a month after it was announced. Alfaro said he broke with the PRD “as a matter of dignity, an exercise in consistency and to send a clear message that we will not allow this political project to be kidnapped by anyone.”
This is not the first time Alfaro has split with the PRD. Fed up with constant interference from Padilla and the UdeG group, he led five other Jalisco mayors in leaving the party to join the Citizen’s Movement in May 2011.
Referring to the state leadership as a “mafia,” Alfaro explained he had since agreed “to build a coalition with the PRD because the national leadership of the party gave assurances that they would not allow the group that controls the PRD in Jalisco to impose their mediocre vision and their crooked rules.”
The collapse of the coalition will do neither Alfaro nor the PRD any favors, with the leftist vote in Jalisco split between the two. Mindful of this problem, Alfaro assured that “not only did we not break with the PRD supporters, but we invite them to follow our path. The doors remain open as this is a citizens’ movement without partisan ties.”
The Tequila Files 